China has built a capacity to sustain a protracted war of any type. Unlike the Soviet Union, the United States and most Western nations are economically reliant on China. This is not possible with China.Ĭhina is now what the United States used to be, in terms of economic power and industrial capacity. The West was able to isolate the Soviet Union economically and technically, successfully blunting its strategic aspirations. This evokes comparisons to the West’s confrontation with the Soviet Union, but these situations have very little in common. Scholars and pundits alike have been quick to characterize Sino-American geopolitical and economic confrontation as a new cold war.
Current recruiting challenges emphasize this growing national security problem. A war with China would require far greater numbers of Americans to serve in the military or to support it directly in some manner - something they are increasingly unwilling to do. capacity to sustain a war is that Americans lack the resilience to fight a sustained, brutal conflict. military forces are too small, their supply lines are too vulnerable, and America’s defense industrial capacity is far too eroded to keep up with the materiel demands of a high-intensity conflict. Wargames indicate the United States will lose significant combat power quickly. military strategy to combat China cannot be sustained. Any resulting high intensity war of attrition over Taiwan, short of a nuclear exchange, will undoubtedly favor China. Politically, a Chinese Communist Party focused on retaining its power domestically as well as on ascending to great power status may rationalize it must act forcefully to achieve its goals. A world war would severely damage the world’s two biggest economies, not to mention all others. The Chinese economy depends on its manufacturing and global trade. Economically, the United States, as is true for most Western nations, depends on Chinese manufacturing and goods. The most likely scenarios indicate China’s doing so would very likely precipitate a world war that would not end quickly.īoth the United States and China have compelling reasons to avoid open conflict. Predictably, this evokes Chinese anger and increases the prospect that China might attack Taiwan. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has only added more incentive for the United States and Taiwan to bolster the latter’s self-defense capacity. China’s declared intent to reunify with Taiwan by force if necessary fuels further confrontation. actions to deny China access to sophisticated microchip technology amplify Chinese claims over Taiwan, the world’s biggest microchip manufacturer. and Chinese governments becoming increasingly confrontational. In reality, any conflict over Taiwan will almost certainly be a prolonged war that favors China.Īs the United States and the West push back against Chinese violations of international law and its economic coercion, U.S.-China trade conflict has grown exponentially with both the U.S. Wargames are useful to assess possible outcomes and develop strategies, but this particular outcome is optimistic at best and is underpinned by flawed assumptions. Recent wargame findings assert that the United States could fight an invasion of Taiwan to a stalemate.
Such is the case of the United States’ capacity to defeat China in a prolonged conflict. Uncomfortable facts often get in the way of what we want to be true.
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